Product Overview
XPredict is the prediction market trading section within the XT App/Web, featuring a unified CEX-style trading experience that enables users to seamlessly participate in the underlying Polymarket prediction markets.
In XPredict, users can directly use USDT from their spot account to participate in prediction wagering on real-world events: users select a real-world event in XPredict, judge whether a certain outcome will occur, and use USDT to buy the corresponding prediction shares. If the judgment is correct, users can receive rewards at settlement, or they can sell early for profit after the market price rises.
Product Rules
Market Mechanism
Prediction Event
A prediction event is the object that users participate in and make predictions on.
Event types include:
- Sports events
- Cryptocurrency
- Political events
- Macroeconomics
- Technology and cultural trends, etc.
For example:
- Will the Lakers win the game?
- Will BTC break through a certain price?
- Will a certain candidate be elected?
Market
A prediction event can contain one or more markets.
Single-Market Event
An event contains only one market.
For example,
Event: Will the Lakers make the playoffs?
Market results: Yes and No.
Multi-Market Event
An event contains multiple markets.
For example,
Event: Who is the champion of the 2026 football tournament?
Markets:
- Brazil to win?
- Market results: Yes and No.
- France to win?
- Market results: Yes and No.
- Argentina to win?
- Market results: Yes and No.
- England to win?
- Market results: Yes and No.
Each market corresponds to independent trading and settlement.
Yes and No
In XPredict, each prediction market uses two outcome directions: Yes / No.
Yes means buying “this event will happen”; No means buying “this event will not happen.” If users buy the correct direction and hold it until settlement, the winning result is settled at 100¢; if users buy the wrong direction, the result is settled at 0¢.
Yes and No each have their own market price. The price can be understood as the market’s judgment of the probability that the outcome will occur. For example,
Outcome |
Price |
Meaning |
Yes |
68¢ |
The market believes the event has approximately a 68% probability of occurring |
No |
32¢ |
The market believes the event has approximately a 32% probability of not occurring |
Prediction Shares
After users buy Yes or No in a market, they will receive the corresponding prediction shares.
Prediction shares are used to:
- Represent the user’s current position
- Sell early
- Complete final market settlement
Probability and Price
The price in the market represents the market’s expected probability of the event outcome.
For example:
- 68¢ = 68%
- 32¢ = 32%
The higher the price, the higher the probability the market believes that outcome will occur.
Market prices change in real time according to users’ buying and selling activity.
Market Status
Prediction markets include the following statuses:
Status |
Description |
Ongoing |
The market is ongoing and tradable |
Closed |
The market is closed and trading has stopped |
Settled |
The market settlement has been completed |
Canceled |
The market has been canceled and the preset settlement is triggered |
Market Lifecycle
A prediction market usually goes through the following process:
- Market opens: users can buy and sell.
- → Market closes: after the market closes, users can no longer trade; XPredict will wait for Polymarket’s final result and complete automatic settlement after confirmation.
- → Market ends: market settlement is completed.
Trading Mechanism
XPredict supports two trading methods: market orders and limit orders. It also supports two trading directions: buy and sell.
Market Order
After users select the trading direction - buy or sell - and enter the trading amount or the number of shares to sell, the system will automatically complete the transaction based on the current market price.
1. Buy Market Order
Users enter:
- Buy amount (USDT)
The system will display:
- Current market price
- Estimated fee
- Total cost
- Amount receivable if the prediction wins
Once the order is filled, the corresponding USDT will be deducted, and the user will receive their prediction shares.
2. Sell Market Order
Users enter:
- Prediction shares to sell
The system will display:
- Current market price
- Estimated fee
- Amount receivable from the sale
After the order is filled, the corresponding prediction shares will be deducted, and users will receive the corresponding USDT.
3. Slippage Control
Prediction market liquidity changes in real time. When market depth is insufficient, large orders may have actual execution prices that deviate from expected prices. Therefore, the system will apply slippage control.
When the actual execution price exceeds the allowed range:
- The order may be partially filled
- The order may fail
- The unfilled portion will be automatically canceled or returned
4. Market Order Features
Suitable for:
- Users who want fast execution
- Users who directly participate in event predictions
Limit Order
A limit order allows users to set their own buy or sell price and wait for the market to fill the order. The order will only be filled when the market price reaches the price set by the user.
1. Limit Buy Order
For example:
The current Yes market price is 68¢, and the user wants to buy at 60¢.
The user needs to enter:
- Buy shares
- Order price
The user can then place a 60¢ limit buy order.
When the market price falls to the user’s set price, the order will be automatically filled.
2. Limit Sell Order
For example:
The user currently holds Yes prediction shares and wants to sell at 80¢.
The user needs to enter:
- Shares to sell
- Order price
The user can then place an 80¢ limit sell order.
When the market price rises to the user’s set price, the order will be automatically filled.
3. Limit Order Validity
Type |
Explanation |
GTC |
Valid until filled or actively canceled by the user |
IOC |
Immediately filled; any unfilled portion is automatically canceled |
Custom Time |
Users can set the order expiration time themselves |
4. Limit Order Cancellation
Before a limit order placed by the user is fully filled, the user can actively cancel it.
After cancellation:
- The unfilled portion will be canceled
- The corresponding frozen assets or prediction shares will be automatically released
- The filled portion cannot be canceled
In some market scenarios, XPredict may automatically cancel unfilled limit orders.
For example:
- Once a sports market officially starts, any unfilled limit orders will be automatically canceled; during the match, users can continue placing orders and trading normally.
- Market closure
- Market suspension
- Underlying market upgrade or maintenance
5. Limit Order Features
Suitable for:
- Users who want to control the execution price
- Users who place orders and wait for a better price
- Users who conduct swing trading
Settlement Mechanism
The prediction market status and settlement results of XPredict are fully based on Polymarket data. After Polymarket completes settlement, XPredict completes fund settlement and automatic reward distribution within the internal account system according to the user’s position results.
For settlement handling under abnormal market statuses, XPredict also fully follows Polymarket rules.
Abnormal Status |
Polymarket Rule |
Delayed/Postponed |
Wait for the final result |
Canceled |
Settlement is executed according to each market's predefined rules, which may vary.
|
Result Dispute |
UMA voting arbitration |
Reference: Resolution - Polymarket Documentation
Profit Mechanism
XPredict is a market built around “event outcome probability.” Users can buy or sell a certain event outcome, earn returns through market price changes, or hold until final settlement to win the reward for the winning outcome.
1. Early Sell
Users do not need to wait for final market settlement. While the market is still tradable, users can sell their prediction shares at any time.
For example:
- The user buys Yes at 40¢
- The market rises to 70¢
- The user sells early and can receive the corresponding spread profit.
Users can also sell early when the market moves against them to reduce losses.
2. Hold Until Settlement
If the result bought by the user is ultimately predicted correctly, the corresponding prediction shares will be settled at 100¢ ($1).
For example:
- The user buys “Yes” at 60¢
- Buys 100 prediction shares
- The final result is Yes
Then:
- Each prediction share is settled at $1
- The user ultimately receives $100
- The user’s profit comes from the difference between the buy price and the final settlement price
If the final result is incorrect, the corresponding prediction shares are settled at 0¢.
Fee Mechanism
- When Fees Are Charged
XPredict itself does not charge any fees. Only when users buy or sell, it collects one Polymarket trading fee on behalf of Polymarket.
- How Fees Are Charged
Polymarket trading fees are charged at 3.5% of the transaction amount and will be additionally deducted from the XT spot account.
Product Features
Feature Entry
- Web entry: a new [XPredict] tab is added under the “Trade” section in the top main navigation.
- App entry: a new [XPredict] entry is added under the Trading Center in the shortcut area; a new [XPredict] tab is added to the top navigation of the trading page.
Global Mode Settings
At the top of the page / in the settings menu, users can switch between “Prediction Mode” and “Trading Mode” to access different prediction market experiences.
Prediction Mode |
Trading Mode |
|
Trading Asset |
Yes Token: this event will happen |
Yes Token: this event will happen No Token: this event will not happen |
Price Format |
Displays win rate and reward multiplier |
Displays price |
Order Type |
Market order |
Limit order / market order |
Trading Direction |
Buy / Sell |
Buy / Sell |
Feature Summary |
“Understand the probability, then predict directly to win the prediction reward” |
“Trade based on event probability and earn from price fluctuations” |
Home Page
The XPredict home page is the prediction market discovery page. It is mainly responsible for distributing prediction events and recommending trending topics. Users browse the prediction event list on the home page, filter prediction events they are interested in, and place orders quickly with one click.
Detail Page
This is the core carrier page of the prediction market. It supports the core functions of market trading and market analysis, integrating chart viewing, order placement, and rule viewing in one place. The detail page generally follows the product design of a CEX spot trading interface, allowing exchange users to get started with prediction trading more easily.
Web Detail Page
The website should use the classic CEX trading view. It is divided into two vertical areas.
The upper area is divided into three sections:
- Event Details Section: Includes the event information header, chart toggle (Trend Chart / Rules), and the comprehensive market display, which differentiates between prediction and trading modes.
- Order book area: displays real-time price buy/sell order book data (the order book is only shown in trading mode)
- Order placement area: supports switching buy/sell, Yes/No outcomes, market/limit orders, and other order operations; displayed content differs between prediction mode and trading mode.
The lower section is divided into three components: positions, orders, and fulfillment history on the left; the event timeline on the upper-right; and the prediction assets display on the lower-right.
- Positions / Orders / History: Seamlessly switch between current positions, open orders, and filled order history.
- Timeline: displays three time nodes (market open / market close / market end).
- Prediction Assets: displays total prediction assets / today’s P&L / position valuation.
App Detail Page
The App detail page is divided into two vertical areas.
The upper area includes the event information header, trend chart, and all-market display (distinguishing prediction mode and trading mode);
The lower area includes rules and the timeline. When the user taps the corresponding outcome option of a market, an order placement trading pop-up appears (distinguishing prediction mode and trading mode), where the user can place orders.
Trading Panel
The XPredict order placement trading panel displays different content in prediction mode and trading mode.
Prediction Mode
- Market selection: no market selection for single-market events; multi-market events can be switched by tapping to select a market
- Order type: in prediction mode, the default is market order, and it cannot be switched to limit order
- Trading direction: on App, only buy orders can be placed; on Web, users can switch between buy/sell orders.
- Outcome selection: users can switch between two mutually exclusive outcomes (such as Yes / No); on the Web, it follows and displays the corresponding probability.
Trading Mode
- Market selection: no market selection for single-market events; multi-market events can be switched by tapping to select a market
- Order type: in trading mode, the default is market order, and it can be switched to limit order
- Trading direction: users can switch between buy/sell orders
- Outcome selection: users can switch between two mutually exclusive outcomes (such as Yes / No), followed by the corresponding price display (in cents)
Assets Page
Users can manage prediction positions and orders on the assets page, and view trading records and asset P&L.
- Users can sell ongoing positions early in the position list.
- Users can also cancel unfilled orders in the order list.
App Explore Page
As an immersive discovery module exclusive to the App, it abandons the traditional dull list and adopts a full-screen, single-subject “swipe card” paradigm, bringing users a fun prediction experience.
FAQ
1. What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a market where users trade around the outcomes of real-world events.
Users can predictively buy or sell an event outcome, for example:
- Sports match results
- BTC price movement
- Political events
- Macroeconomic events
Market prices change in real time according to user trading behavior and reflect the market’s expected probability of the event outcome.
2. How do users participate in XPredict?
Users can directly use USDT assets from the spot account of their XT exchange account to participate in XPredict. There is no need for on-chain operations or gas fee payments, and no need to transfer assets to a specific account, making the process simple and convenient.
3. Why do prices change in real time?
Prices in prediction markets are determined by market buying and selling activity.
When more users are optimistic about an outcome and keep buying it:
- The corresponding price will rise
- The corresponding probability will also rise
Conversely, it will fall.
4. Must users hold until the market ends?
No.
Before the market ends, users can sell their shares early at any time.
Users can:
- Take profit early
- Stop loss early
- Conduct swing trading
5. Who determines the final market result?
The final market result of XPredict fully follows the final result of the underlying Polymarket market.
Polymarket will complete final result determination and settlement based on:
- Official data sources
- Official match results
- Authoritative information sources
6. After users make a correct prediction, do they need to manually claim rewards?
After winning, users can manually claim their rewards from the position panel within 24 hours. If the rewards are not claimed within 24 hours, they will be automatically distributed. Rewards will be issued in USDT to the user’s spot account.